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Like Ants to a Picnic ! by Denise S. Nakanishi

When I was young, Grandama Zila  used to bring me back issues of National Geographic from the VA hospital in Lake City, Florida.  My family certainly didn’t travel.  Heck, we didn’t even make long distance calls.  I loved those magazines.  When we cleaned my Mother’s storage room 30 years later, there they were.  I was so excited.  I had no particular fascination with Hawaii and yet several issues had a definite Hawaii theme.  It’s the funniest thing.  The only other periodical I saved was a Sixteen Magazine.  There, dog-eared among the pages all about Hawaii was a story about a girl from Hilo! Miles tells me she still lives here.  Even if I had been able to isolate the “clues”, it’s unlikely I could have predicted I’d land in Hilo.  Unfortunately, predicting the future isn’t easy. It’s never fool-proof, even with strong indicators staring you right in the face.  And so it is with real estate.  Most people believe the market is still going down, while others want to know if it’s about to go up again. Here’s what I know.  All real estate is local.  It’s so local, in fact, that what’s true for Hilo may not be true for HPP or Mountain View.  Inventory levels in HPP have actually dropped 5% since the beginning of the year while at the same time, the number of homes for sale in Leilani remain at 4+ year supply.  On the other hand, Ophikau and Kapoho properties, just a couple of miles away, seem to be moving pretty well.  In general, if we look at our feeder markets or by determining who the potential buyers are and where they are coming from, it’s possible to get a sense of what’s driving specific markets. Hilo and HPP buyers are, for the most part, local buyers with local budgets. Most buyers looking in lower Puna are still mainland investors and transplants but with less aggressive pocketbooks.  With fewer investment buyers, it makes sense that sales have slowed in areas formerly dependant on mainland money.  Ainaloa and Volcano corridor buyers are a mix.  Hamakua buyers are generally from Oahu and the mainland.  They tend to be picky but will pay more if they find what they want.  In today’s market, pricing is so key that it’s necessary to focus less on recent sales and more on what’s in the pipeline. By focusing on listings about to close, it’s easier to draw more precise conclusions about buyer profiles.  This really gives us the best chance of knowing the property characteristics and price ranges most likely to attract buyers.   So take a tip from Mother Nature;  make sure you have what buyers want.  Do your homework.  Figure out who is buying and why.  Figure out where they’ll be coming from.  Make sure the price is easy to swallow.  Make sure it’s out there where they’ll find it. Your selling future may be easier to predict than you thought.